The Rays and the 2009 Postseason

Back in June, when the Rays were still floundering a little bit, and just dropped below the .500 mark again, I did some simple math to see how good the Rays would have to play for the rest of the season to get to the playoffs. At the time (6/9), they were 29-30, and had 103 games left. Here’s the math

90 wins

61-42 (.592)

91

62-41 (.602)

92

63-40 (.612)

93

64-39 (.621)

94

65-38 (.631)

95

66-37 (.640)

97

68-35 (.660)

Simply, the Rays were going to have to play some very good baseball to make the playoffs, since 90 or 91 wins will almost surely not guarantee a playoff spot this season. By my guess, between 95-100 wins will win the division, and between 92-95 will win the wild card. Since June 9^th, the Rays have gone 31-18 (.633), at their current pace, from the work I did back in June, the Rays will end up with either 93 or 94 wins.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Rays currently have a 46% chance to make the playoffs (although it drops to 14% when PECOTA gets involved), which is probably about right. Either they keep playing the way they have been recently, and sneak into the playoffs, or they stumble a bit, and can’t quite make up the games they need to. Currently, the Rays have 54 games left, and 60 wins. The ideal situation would be 95 wins at the end of the season, which means the Rays need to go 35-19 (.648) over the final 54 games. In the end, the Rays certainly need a little bit of luck to get into the postseason, but if they keep playing like they’re capable, they’ve got a shot.